“Prime Minister claims Brexit would lead to World War III!” A tad hyperbolic, no? Despite this, it has raised questions over the scale of the EU’s role in the peace and stability enjoyed by the continent for decades past, and the security implications of the referendum result. I shall therefore, once again, attempt to address them.
It is a mainstay of Vote Leave’s argument that the EU has nothing whatsoever to do with defence and security, or Europe’s lasting peace; instead they say that they are entirely the responsibility of NATO. However, the European Union was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 for “over six decades having contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe” and its neighbours.
Because of this, the chance of another ‘hot’ war between European nations is near zero for the foreseeable future, despite the continent being the most conflicted on Earth for centuries. The EU’s Common Defence and Security Policy was established under the Lisbon Treaty to replace the Western European Union, a military alliance created in response to the Cold War. Managed by the European Council (comprised of the heads of national governments), it allows for the EU to make use of NATO assets and command structures in response to crises.
“While the decision is one for the British people, Brexit would undoubtedly lead to a loss of British influence, undermine Nato and give succour to the West’s enemies just when we need to stand shoulder to shoulder across the Euro-Atlantic community against common threats, including on our doorstep.”
Five former heads of NATO
I would agree that NATO itself is primarily responsible for maintaining peace on Europe’s external borders. It deters conflict in the face of Russian aggression by ensuring a unified response. Take, for example, RAF Typhoons intercepting Russian aircraft in the Baltics just last month. On the other hand, both NATO and the EU failed to resolve the Ukraine conflict, although Ukraine is not a member of either bloc. One could argue they did just about manage to prevent further escalation.
“Can we be so sure that peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash as to make that assumption.”
David Cameron
Per contra, the EU maintains ‘cold’ peace by bringing countries together through international cooperation and the codification of common aims, such as tackling climate change. This prevents radical leaders from setting countries against each other with aggressively escalating economic/political differences. As the Prime Minister recently said: to leave would be to “risk the clock being turned back to an age of competing nationalism in Europe”.
The UK gathers the most intelligence in Europe, in partnership with the USA. Other EU nations therefore rely on us for intelligence more than we rely on them, but the point is that we do still rely on each other. The Schengen Information System is an EU-wide database for maintaining and distributing information on “individuals and pieces of property of interest”, intended for use in matters relating to national security, border control, and law enforcement.
The European Arrest Warrant (EAW), introduced in response to 9/11, makes use of this system. It is a mechanism for EU countries to extradite individuals between member states without political involvement in the judicial process. It has reduced the time taken for extradition from years to weeks, with over one thousand criminals returned to the UK to stand trial, including one high profile case from the attempted 2005 London bombings which followed 7/7.
Furthermore, Europol is an EU agency which supports cooperation between police forces across the continent, increasing the effectiveness of the EAW and improving national security more generally. All of these systems would be put at risk in the event of a Brexit, especially if it were followed by changes to rights and regulation in the UK.
“The truth is this: what happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain. Either we influence Europe, or it influences us. And if things go wrong in Europe, let’s not pretend we can be immune from the consequences.”
David Cameron
Being external to the Schengen zone means we maintain our border controls, so illegal migrants who manage to make their way across the continent to Calais can’t get access to the UK. French officials have suggested the current arrangement of carrying out border checks on the French side of the Channel could come to an end if we were to leave the EU, meaning many of those currently camped out there could potentially reach Britain.
The terrorists who attacked Paris and Brussels were Belgian nationals. If they had tried to reach London instead, our passport controls would almost certainly not have detected anything unusual, but would have prevented them from carrying arms into the country. If we were outside of the EU, the situation would be exactly the same, only they would be given access on a holiday visa, rather than via EU freedom of movement.
So, with all the literary liveliness of a Wikipedia article, I think I’ve meandered towards the conclusion that Vote Leave is wrong, as usual. The EU has played a role in establishing and maintaining peace on the continent; some may say quite a considerable one. It is not certain that voting to leave would reduce our national security or the effectiveness of our security services, but the risk is considerable, while voting to remain can only keep them strong.
I believe it is “peace for our time“. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.
Andrew Bulman 